House Build Back Better Act: Details & Analysis (2023)

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Democratic lawmakers in the House of Representatives have advanced updated legislation containing the tax elements of President Biden’s Build Back Better agenda. The House bill may differ from the Senate’s version of the legislation. This analysis contains estimates of the budgetary, economic, and distributional impacts of the House bill as specified in the House Rules Committee Print 117-18 released on November 3, 2021 and amended on November 4, 2021, and reflects subsequent analysis of the bill by the Congressional Budget Office.

Using the Tax Foundation General Equilibrium Model, we estimate that the tax provisions, IRS enforcement, and drug pricing provisions in the House bill would increase federal revenues by about $1.7 trillion over the next decade, before accounting for $658 billion in expanded tax credits for individuals and businesses, resulting in a net revenue increase of about $1 trillion. Excluding the anticipated revenue from increased tax compliance and the drug pricing provisions, the bill would raise about $521 billion from net tax increases over 10 years.

We estimate that the House bill would reduce long-run economic output by nearly 0.5 percent and eliminate about 125,000 full-time equivalent jobs in the United States. It would also reduce average after-tax incomes for taxpayers across every income quintile over the long run.

Related: Tax Proposals by the Biden Administration

Major Provisions of the Updated House Build Back Better Act

The updated draft legislation would include the following major changes, effective January 1, 2022, unless otherwise noted:

Individual Income Taxes

• Create a new surcharge on modified adjusted gross income (MAGI), defined as adjusted gross income less investment interest expense, equal to 5 percent on MAGI in excess of $10 million plus 3 percent on MAGI above $25 million.
• Extend the American Rescue Plan Act (ARPA) Child Tax Credit (CTC) expansion through 2022, and make the entire CTC fully refundable on a permanent basis
• Extend the ARPA’s temporary expansion of the Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC) eligibility, phase-in rates, and amount through 2022
• Limit Individual Retirement Accounts (IRAs) contributions when balances reach $10 million and accelerate required minimum distributions for those accounts
• Raise the cap on the state and local tax (SALT) deduction from $10,000 to $80,000 and extend this cap through 2030. The $80,000 SALT cap amount would also apply to the 2021 tax year. For 2031, the SALT deduction cap would be set at $10,000.

Pass-through Business Taxes

• Expand the base of the 3.8 percent Net Investment Income Tax (NIIT) to apply to active business income for pass-through firms

• Make permanent the active pass-through loss limitation enacted in the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA)

Corporate and International Taxes

• Impose a 15 percent minimum tax on corporate book income for corporations with profits over $1 billion, effective for tax years beginning after December 31, 2022

• Create a 1 percent excise tax on the value of stock repurchases during the taxable year, net of new issuances of stock, effective for repurchases after December 31, 2021. Excluded from the tax are stock contributed to retirement accounts, pensions, and employee-stock ownership plans (ESOPs).

• Change the Global Intangible Low-Taxed Income (GILTI) regime, effective for tax years beginning after December 31, 2022, including:

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  • Reduce the deduction for GILTI to5 percent, resulting in a tax rate of 15 percent

  • Calculate GILTI on a country-by-country basis

  • Reduce the deduction for Qualified Business Asset Investment (QBAI) to 5 percent

  • Reduce the foreign tax credit (FTC) haircut to 5 percent and allow FTCs to be carried forward for 5 to 10 years and disallow FTC carrybacks

  • Exempt GILTI from expense allocation rules

  • Include foreign oil and gas extraction income (FOGEI)

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• Reduce the deduction for Foreign-Derived Intangible Income (FDII) to 21.875 percent, resulting in a tax rate of 15.8 percent, effective for tax years beginning after December 31, 2022

• Create a new limitation on interest expense deductions for certain multinational corporations, effective for tax years beginning after December 31, 2022

• Modify the base erosion and anti-abuse tax (BEAT) for multinational corporations

• Create a new limitation on foreign company base sales and services income

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Other Modeled Tax Proposals

• Delay the requirement to amortize research and development (R&D) expenses over five years, instead of taking immediate deductions, to begin after 2025 instead of after 2021
• Modify, extend, and create a variety of tax credits for green energy and other efforts primarily through 2031 or 2033
• Reinstate the Superfund tax on crude oil and imported petroleum at 16.4 cents per barrel (indexed to inflation), and double the reinstated Superfund tax on the sale of chemicals
• Levy a federal excise tax on nicotine specified at $50.33 per 1,810 milligrams of nicotine.

Significant Proposals Not Modeled

• Extend or make permanent certain ARPA expansions of premium tax credits, including allowing higher-income households to qualify for the credits and boosting the subsidy for lower-income households

• Make tax changes targeted at cryptocurrency, including imposing rules related to common control and wash sales

Economic Effects of the Updated HouseBuild Back Better Act

While the latest proposal steers clear of some of the major tax rate increases of the original Ways and Means bill, this proposal would still raise taxes on work and investment, disincentivizing productive activity. We estimate the new House bill would reduce long-run GDP by about 0.5 percent and long-run American incomes (as measured by gross national product, or GNP) by about 0.5 percent. The bill would also reduce the capital stock by about 1 percent and wages by nearly 0.4 percent, while eliminating 125,000 full-time equivalent jobs.

The proposed 15 percent minimum tax on corporate book income is the most economically damaging provision in the bill, reducing GDP by 0.1 percent and costing about 27,000 jobs. The tax increases on high-income earners also contributes to the job losses: the surcharge on MAGI above $10 million eliminates 29,000 jobs while the tax increases on pass-through business income eliminate 16,000 jobs.

The international tax increases imposed on U.S. multinationals (MNEs), including the higher taxes on GILTI and new limit on interest expense, reduce long-run GDP and GNP by about 0.1 percent and eliminate 8,000 full-time equivalent jobs. There is an additional negative impact on GNP that we have not modeled (due to a lack of empirical studies) arising from the incentive for U.S. MNEs to avoid the higher GILTI taxes by selling foreign assets to foreign competitors not subject to GILTI.

For purposes of estimating the bill’s impact on federal budget deficits, interest payments, and resulting changes in GNP, we have estimated about $2.13 trillion of net outlays over the period 2022-2031 inclusive of scored tax credits. In the years beyond 2031, we assume the proposals have no impact on deficits (to comply with the reconciliation process in the Senate).

We estimate that the bill would result in $838 billion of accumulated deficits (including interest payments) during the first decade, leading to an increase in payments to foreign owners of the national debt and a 0.02 percent reduction in long-run GNP. We treat the spending as transfer payments with no associated impact on the economy in the long run.

Revenue Effects of the Updated House Build Back Better Act

On a conventional basis, the House bill would raise about $1 trillion in federal revenue from 2022 to 2031. The bill includes about $1.7 trillion in gross revenue raisers, composed of about $470 billion in corporate tax increases, $530 billion in individual tax increases, $148 billion net from additional IRS tax enforcement, $340 billion from the drug pricing provisions, and about $177 billion in net revenue from Ways & Means items scored by the Joint Committee on Taxation (JCT) and Congressional Budget Office (CBO).

The gross revenue is reduced by about $658 billion in tax credits, resulting in about $1 trillion in increased revenue net of tax credits.

We relied on estimates provided by the JCT for tax provisions we did not model. To estimate the spending, we used estimates provided by the CBO, which include about $1.48 trillion in additional outlays net of the spending’s revenue impacts. Including the $658 billion in tax credits, the bill includes about $2.14 trillion in additional outlays over 10 years.

The largest revenue raiser is the 15 percent minimum tax on corporate book income for corporations with average annual adjusted financial statement income that exceeds $1 billion for any three consecutive tax years, beginning in 2023. While we estimate that the provision raises $203 billion over the next decade, this may be an upper bound, as it does not account for any behavioral responses, i.e., avoidance, since the structure of the tax is unique. Actual revenue could be less if, for instance, companies respond by reducing reported financial income.

Another novel revenue raiser is the 1 percent excise tax on net stock buybacks, which we estimate would raise $62 billion over the next decade, again assuming no behavioral responses. Actual revenue may be reduced to the extent companies choose to reduce stock repurchases and instead hold excess cash, for instance. On the other hand, revenue may be higher than our estimate if firms shift toward dividends in response to the new excise tax, as dividends are often taxable at ordinary income tax rates.

A third major revenue raiser is the surcharge on MAGI above $10 million. We estimate this provision would raise $186 billion over the next decade, and relatively little in the first two years due to reduced realizations for capital gains. Actual revenue may be reduced further to the extent high-income individuals engage in other avoidance techniques that result in less reported income.

Another element of the House bill that could significantly reduce net revenue is the use of temporary tax policy, particularly the one-year extension of this year’s child credit. If this credit were extended permanently, it would reduce net revenue by nearly $1.5 trillion over the next decade.

On a dynamic basis, i.e., accounting for the reduced size of the economy resulting from the tax increases, we estimate the House bill would raise in total about $854 billion in revenue net of tax credits over the next decade.

Distributional Effect of the Updated House Build Back Better Act

Over the long run, the updated House tax proposals would raise marginal income tax rates faced by higher earners and corporations. In 2022, however, the tax increases on high earners are more than offset by a more generous SALT deduction cap, which mostly accrues to households with higher incomes.

The proposals would increase the after-tax income of the bottom quintile by about 15.2 percent in 2022 on a conventional basis, which is largely driven by the expanded child tax credit (CTC). The top 1 percent of earners would experience a 0.8 percent increase in after-tax income in 2022 due to a more generous SALT deduction.

After the expanded CTC expires in 2022, the bottom 20 percent of filers would see a smaller increase in after-tax incomes, reflecting the remaining expanded credits. The bottom quintile would experience a 0.5 percent increase in after-tax income by 2031 on a conventional basis. The top 5 percent of income earners would experience a drop in after-tax income due to higher individual and corporate taxes in addition to the reinstated $10,000 SALT deduction cap. The top 1 percent would see a 4 percent drop in after-tax income.

On a long-term dynamic basis, the smaller economy reduces after-tax incomes relative to the conventional analysis and most of the expanded tax credits will have expired. On average, tax filers in every quintile would experience a drop in after-tax incomes.

Modeling Notes

We use the Tax FoundationGeneral Equilibrium Tax Modelto estimate the impact of tax policies, including recent updates allowing a detailed modeling of U.S. multinational enterprises. The model produces conventional and dynamic revenue and distributional estimates of tax policy. Conventional estimates hold the size of the economy constant and attempt to estimate potential behavioral effects of tax policy. Dynamic revenue estimates consider both behavioral and macroeconomic effects of tax policy on revenue.

The model also produces estimates of how policies impact measures of economic performance such as GDP, GNP, wages, employment, the capital stock, investment, consumption, saving, and the trade deficit.